Fresh wave of doubts arises over India's growth rate
The differences in the new GDP series and the ground realities have brought about doubts and skepticism on the validity of the data by economists

The Indian economy has overtaken China’s economy to become the fastest growing economy in the world. During the last quarter (January – March) of FY2015 India’s GDP grew by 7.5% according to Central Statistical Organization (CSO) of India, while China grew by 7% in the same period. And according to estimates India’s economic growth is going to continue to be ahead of China’s in the next few years. During the full year 2014-15 however China was still ahead with a growth of 7.5% from India’s growth of 7.3% missing the CSO’s estimate of 7.4%.
This is not the first quarter where India had celebrated the triumph over China’s economy. In the previous quarter (October – December) the CSO had earlier stated that the GDP growth in quarter was 7.5%, which was higher than China’s growth, only to revise it sharply to 6.6% on May 29. This was almost a 1% correction in the GDP growth figures. Apart from this the recalculated GDP for 2012-13 was revised from 4.7% in the old series to 5.1% in the new series, while 2013-14 was raised to 6.9% from 5% earlier. This has further fuelled skepticism domestically and internationally about the new GDP series of the CSO under the Narendra Modi government.
In the new GDP series the CSO has revised the calculation of GVA (gross value added) and changed the base year on which comparisons are made from earlier 2004-05 to now 2011-12. The new method of measurement takes into account economic activity by market prices instead of factor costs taken earlier. It also takes into account gross value additions in goods and services as well as indirect taxes. This includes various income many of which is informal in India and was not taken into account earlier. For instance the new GDP figures take into account even the value of meat byproducts and even the droppings of animals which is used for the production of manure (termed as evacuation rate) from a research data collected in Makhdoom, Uttar Pradesh. Though the CSO says that the new GDP series follow international standards of the calculation of the GDP, there has been a lot of skepticism and doubt expressed by various economists in India and internationally.
Of the latest people to voice their doubt over new GDP series was RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who during the recent bi-monthly monetary policy review left enough hints regarding the central bank having serious concerns on the latest GDP figures released. Rajan said in a media report, “In the eyes of the rest of the world, it is a discrepancy why we feel the need for rate cuts when the economy is growing at 7.5 per cent. Most economies growing at 7-7.5 per cent are just going gang busters and the issue there would be to restrain rather than accelerate growth”. Regarding the GDP numbers he said, “Even with the 7.5 per cent growth numbers there is some discussion of how much that includes special factors in the last quarter including excise taxes and subsidies. When you deduct that, the growth in the last quarter does not look as strong”. He further said that is an irony that the fastest growing economy in the globe had to resort to monetary easing to support growth. This was said in reference to the repo rate cut of 25 basis points that the RBI announced the same meeting. “We are under no illusion that the economy, especially investment, is up and running. It is not. It needs support. We are trying to use whatever room we have to undertake measures that revive the economy,” Rajan said. These words come from a man who predicted the worst economic crisis that hit the US in 2008 engulfing the economies of the world.
Apart from him many other economists have voiced their concern regarding the new GDP series. Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor in a media report, when asked how did he assess the new GDP numbers said “I am puzzled by the new GDP growth numbers. This is mystifying because these numbers, especially the acceleration in 2013-14, are at odds with other features of the macro economy”. He further added, “The year 2013-14 was a crisis year - capital flowed out, interest rates were tightened and there was consolidation - and it is difficult to understand how an economy's growth could be so high and accelerate so much under such circumstances. Also, look at the other data -in 2013-14, import of goods apparently declined 10 per cent; this, even after accounting for the squeeze on gold imports, is high. Typically, growth booms are accompanied by surges in import, not declines. Similarly, data show real gross capital formation declined in 2012-13 and grew at a modest three per cent in 2013-14. It is not usual for growth to accelerate so rapidly in this situation. Another puzzle is there was actually a downward revision in the GDP deflator when, in fact, there was high inflation.”
Similarly, many other economists had issues with the difference in the manufacturing data with the IIP (index of industrial production) which measures factory output, which in essence should be similar. State Bank of India economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh in a media report had said, “Nothing on the ground suggests the economy is growing at 7.4% rate. The number is fine if one goes by the internationally agreed standard, but one is unable to match especially the manufacturing data with the corporate sales numbers”. Similarly, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Care Ratings agency said, “There are still some anomalies in reconciliation of IIP data with GDP data as manufacturing shows growth of 6.8% for FY2015 which looks unlikely under the IIP which will probably be between 2-3%. The difference may be attributed to the GDP being based on value-added concept while IIP is on production—though the two should ideally converge”. Another economist Shilan Shah, India Economist at Capital Economics in an article said that the GDP data for January-March period in reality remain wildly inconsistent with numerous other indicators that point to continued slack in the economy.
They all throw across several important points as to the differences in the new GDP figures to the ground reality of the economy. One being the difference in IIP numbers that reflect manufacturing growth and demand (which was at a low point) and the new GDP figures that show high growth. Similarly, there has been disparity voiced out in the results of corporate earnings reports of key sectors such as automobile, banking, FMCG and retail which have been low and recovery of bank credit also being low to the new GDP numbers which shows high growth. The main point that these economists raise is the stark difference between the new GDP figures that paint a picture of high growth in the economy and the on-ground reality which is completely opposite to it.
Many economists even advise not go by the new GDP figures as it can affect policies and decision making of companies. For instance the RBI takes policy decisions bases on the GDP figures, similarly a lot of other institutions governmental and non-governmental take decisions based on this. The RBI’s figures of growth were 5.5% for the year and they have taken the decision to stick to it at the moment.
In fact due to these doubts expressed in the GDP data the government is now looking to review the numbers by setting up an expert group. A three-member committee headed by Pronab Sen, Chairman, National Statistical Commission was announced at the end of last week to investigate the discrepancies, if any, in the manufacturing data and the services sector data.
Many of the future growth estimates by international organizations which are also based on the CSO figures. This brings up the question whether these growth expectations are actually achievable. It also brings us to bigger point that we will need more than a change in the numbers for the Indian economy to grow.
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Social Beat wins SEO mandate of Tata CLiQ tag rss
The account was won after a multi-agency pitch
e4m e4m Social Beat has won the SEO mandate for Tata CLiQ, one of the fastest-growing omnichannel marketplace in India. Social Beat has been entrusted with optimizing existing content, as well as launching new, optimized category pages systematically on Tata CLiQ’s platform to scale monthly organic traffic by 2x over the next year. The account was won after a multi-agency pitch and will be serviced by Social Beat’s offices in Mumbai.
Shishir Kataria, Director - Marketing, Tata CLiQ, “Shoppers, e-commerce or otherwise, continue to heavily rely on search and discovery throughout their shopping journey, be it engaging with the latest fashion trends or hunting for the best buys. No wonder a platform's ability to be a part of this journey organically drives significant consideration for it amongst potential shoppers. We, at Tata Cliq, are confident that Social Beat will help us develop and optimise content that is highly discoverable to grow our engagement and revenue. Our goal continues to be to drive more and more shoppers to our platform with optimised and curated products and relevant content.”
Vikas Chawla, Co-Founder, Social Beat said, “We are thrilled to partner with Tata CLiQ in their growth journey. We aim to scale traffic to the Tata CLiQ platform manyfold over the next year. Our team of specialised SEO and Content strategists will be working closely to achieve this”
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Will OOH dazzle this festive season?
As the celebrations begin, experts tell us the trends and challenges for the OOH sector this season
Be it the flower-clad taxis in Mumbai for Made in Heaven Season 2 promotion or Zomato’s ‘kheer mangoge kheer denge’ billboards, India's OOH advertising sector has undergone substantial transformation and expansion in the recent years. Even though the medium was severely hit during the pandemic years, it has now managed to rebuild its status. Now, with the onset of the festive season, elections and the cricket world cup, OOH is expected to see more and more advertisers come on board.
Amarjeet Hudda, Chief Operating Officer, Laqshya Media Group, believes most of the clients spend a lot of money during the festive season, especially for Durga Puja, Dussehra and Diwali, targeting their customers in a festive mood. The categories that spend heavily during these months are Auto, Consumer Durables, Real Estate, Organised retail, and E-commerce.
According to Dipankar Sanyal of Platinum Outdoor, there was a huge surge in the festive season last year, and he expects the same this year too. “Last four to five years have turbulent for outdoor. It was picking up in 2019, but then Covid came and everything went flat for two years,” he mentioned.
According to EY-FICCI’s M&E Report 2023, OOH media grew 86 percent in 2022 to Rs 37 billion. The value includes traditional, transit and digital media, but excludes untracked unorganised OOH media such as wall paintings, billboards, ambient media, storefronts, proxy advertising.
Sharing the brand’s perspective, Shivam Ranjan, Head of Marketing, Motorola-APAC, said, “We are going into this festive season with a strong mix of media, including OOH. Within OOH, we are focusing on digital OOH, due to its capability of programmatic serving, measurability, and near real-time insights that allow us to be agile with the communication and optimisation of our campaigns.”
With urbanisation, improved infrastructure, rising consumerism and an increased spending power, clients' expectations from OOH advertising too have evolved. “The clients expect better ROI on every investment, best in class innovations, tech-led planning and execution. Today, technology plays an important role starting from planning the campaign, to measuring metrics to ROI,” Singh explained.
Another trend that Sanyal has observed is that traditionally advertisers looked at spending on OOH nearly two weeks prior to the festivities, but now, most advertisers have now started advertising a week earlier so that they can get maximum eyeballs. Additionally, the digital OOH advertising (DOOH) has also emerged big. The digital OOH screens increased to around 100,000 and contributed eight percent of total segment revenues.
“Now with digital, there is more space for advertisers to come in one frame. Because of this, you can see it is getting more attractive. The innovations too are coming in at a much lower cost and creating a greater impact,” shared Sanyal.
The only challenge with the medium, according to Ranjan, is OOH being a fragmented industry with lack of measurability and agility. This becomes a serious issue for ROI-centric brands. However, the growth of DOOH, which is dynamic, agile and measurable, is giving marketers the confidence to invest in the medium backed by relevant data and outcomes.
Adding to this, Hudda highlighted that availability of good media spots is the biggest challenge in this season as media assets are limited and demand is very high. Due to the gap in the festive season, many clients are not able to fully optimise their campaigns. Rather sometimes, clients are even compelled to divert their budget which adversely impacts the industry, he shared.
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Banking on positive consumer sentiment: BFSI optimistic on doubling festive AdEx : Cache
Some categories within the sector, however, may spend more in the quarter that follows the festive season
The BFSI sector is expecting a surge in demand for loan during the festive season and is looking at increasing its ad spends to cash in on the celebration spirit. Industry leaders say they are hopeful of witnessing a good growth in the number of applications for auto loan, home loan, credit card and health insurance during October, November and December due to positive consumer sentiment this year. However, though most of the BFSI players are planning to double their advertising budget this time compared to the previous year, there are some who are not investing too heavily on marketing during the festivals as they plan to save the money for the fourth quarter.
According to Shailendra Singh, MD & CEO, BOB Financial, they witness incremental growth every year during the October-December quarter, and they anticipate an increase in consumer spending as well as new enrolments for cards this year too. “There remains a surge in customer demand for credit during the festive season,” said Singh.
Singh shared that the company is fully geared up for the launch of #FestiveShoppingRewards on all Bank of Baroda credit card variants under the theme ‘Reimagine Festivities’. They would kickstart festive offerings with the start of Navratri.
The festive season does not just see the demand for credit go up, but there is an increase in applications for health and motor insurance too during this time of the year.
Aabhinna Suresh Khare, Chief Digital & Marketing Officer, BajajCapital Ltd, shared that among insurance products, health insurance and motor insurance reign supreme during festivals. According to Khare, the demand for mutual funds and SIPs too sees a hike.
“Overall, the festive season presents an opportune moment to secure insurance coverage. A plethora of attractive products and services are on offer, with financial institutions extending special discounts and promotions to entice new customers,” said Khare.
The company launched #BlessMeGanesha campaign during Ganesh Chaturthi. “Our goal for this festive season is not only to provide financial solutions but also to create memorable experiences and deepen the connection with our customers,” said Khare.
Though all major sectors spend heavily on advertising during the festive season, within the BFSI sector, some categories spend more in the quarter that follows the festive season.
Explaining the trend, Samir Sethi, Head of Brand Marketing, Policybazaar.com, said that the festive season has varying impacts on the BFSI sector. In the banking sector, for instance, the demand for loans surges as many individuals purchase items and undertake home renovations. Conversely, in the insurance category, the festive season doesn't result in significant changes. Instead, the insurance industry experiences its peak season after the festive period, particularly during the fourth quarter of the financial year.
“As the festive season approaches, there is a noticeable increase in car sales though, leading to a surge in the demand for motor insurance. Consequently, we see a significant uptick in the requests for motor insurance policies. During the festive period, there is an upswing in demand for various categories, such as electronics. However, in the insurance sector, this period doesn't significantly affect us, so we don't run specific campaigns targeting festivals. Nevertheless, we do roll out multiple campaigns throughout the year, and some of them may coincide with the festive season,” said Sethi.
According to the TAM AdEx report on BFSI sector across media for H1, the advertising volume of the sector grew on TV, radio and digital, but declined in the print medium. The report indicated that ad impressions on digital saw 91% rise during Jan-Jun '23 over Jan-Jun’22. The increase was 32% for radio and 4% for TV. The ad space of the BFSI sector decreased by 7% in print.
Speaking on media mix, Singh shared that BOB Financial has a good mix of customer segments belonging to Tier I, II and III. So, understanding their needs and preferred form of media channels, the company will reach out to them through relevant media promotions. “For the easy discovery of our offers, we shall have a dedicated offers page with regular promotion of top offers on our social media and other digital channels,” said Singh. Without disclosing the figure, Singh shared that the company’s promotion budget has surely increased from last year and it will be visible through their multi-channel promotional activities.
According to the TAM report, in the BFSI sector, life insurance is the leading category on TV and radio whereas mutual funds is the top category on digital.
Khare highlighted that in recent times, Bajaj Capital has observed a significant growth in audiences on online platforms and the changing preferences of their clientele. “This observation led us to recalibrate our marketing approach, placing a heightened emphasis on digital avenues,” said Khare.
He further added, “Our promotional efforts are primarily digital-focused, accentuating areas like social media engagement, search engine outreach, content-driven marketing, and targeted online advertising. As we approach the festive season, we've fine-tuned our online approach. By harnessing the insights from data analytics, we aim to grasp our clients' needs and inclinations better, ensuring our content is both tailored and pertinent.”
Khare also mentioned that Baja Capital has doubled its advertising budget compared to the previous year.
“This increase in our ad spend signifies our confidence in the opportunities this festive season presents. This impressive surge in our budget allocation underscores our dedication to maximizing the potential of this festive season and driving significant expansion within our business. We firmly believe that this increased investment in advertising will not only elevate our brand presence but also lead to an exceptional uptick in customer engagement and sales.”
For Policybazaar.com, the media strategy primarily involves a blend of television and digital platforms, an approach that has remained consistent in recent years and is expected to continue in the foreseeable future.
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OMD appoints Dileep Raj Singh as Head of Digital for APAC
Singh will report to Charlotte Lee, CEO of OMD APAC
OMD has added a Head of Digital (HOD) to its Asia Pacific (APAC) regional leadership team with the hiring of Dileep Raj Singh.
Singh is a digital native and brings with him a wealth of experience across product, media agency and client side in APAC, North America and the United Kingdom. His last 10 years have been spent building diverse digital marketing teams covering areas like performance marketing, digital media planning, ad/martech, product marketing, branding and measurement.
As HOD, he will accelerate OMD’s digital leadership agenda, rooted in helping clients address their business challenges and digital ambitions. He will be supporting OMD’s local teams in APAC on operational excellence, and digital transformation frameworks and roadmaps; and the development and implementation of our digital leadership agenda. He will also be working hand in hand with both our regional and global networks to initiate complementary workstreams for our clients in APAC.
“We will continue to invest and win in digital as part of our wider goal to be our clients’ most trusted business transformation partner,” said Charlotte Lee, CEO of OMD APAC.
“It is our global ambition to continue our leadership position in digital, data and technology. In line with this ambition, we are excited to have Singh come on board the OMD APAC leadership team. His background of agency, in-house and start-up experience position him perfectly to understand and address our clients’ business needs,” added Lee.
“Digital media and access to our audience, as we know it, is changing quite rapidly around us. This puts most of us in a delicate but remarkable position, a position from which we can shape and contribute to conversations about the next evolution of digital media. As we embark on this journey, I want to leverage the strength of the OMD network – people, technology, data, tools and platforms – to help our clients pivot and navigate through all the new and evolved possibilities in digital media. With this, I aim to position OMD as an unrivaled partner for our current and future clients; to dominate and succeed in this incredibly competitive and multifarious digital realm,” said Singh.
Singh will report to Lee, and work closely with the team including Chief Strategy Officer (CSO), David McCallen, and Chief Client Officer (CCO), Sadhan Mishra, to drive and support APAC local markets as well as regional clients on digital, data and technology needs.
Mishra was promoted to CCO of OMD APAC recently in June 2023. He will continue to be CEO of OMD Singapore, a position he was promoted into last August. Mishra has been with OMD for over 13 years and in his concurrent new role as CCO, he will focus on key client relationships, understanding their business needs and ensuring we remain a critical partner on their transformation journeys.
McCallen was elevated to the role of CSO of OMD APAC in April 2022, and was previously the CSO of OMD New Zealand for five years where he helped the agency to attain the top place in the market for new business, overall billings and award wins. Since starting in the APAC role, his focus has been on connecting and elevating strategic best practices across the region, building capabilities across a range of strategic outputs, and supporting new business growth both regionally and locally.
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Chandrayaan 3: Brands over the Moon
Some of the best moment marketing posts on India's crucial lunar mission
The nation is in a celebratory mood with its moon mission Chandrayaan 3 making its smooth landing on the lunar surface on the evening of August 23, 2023. The Pragyan rover is in pursuit of discovering water on the moon and is a vital feat for India's ambitious space research.
To celebrate this momentous episode in Indian space research history, netizens have taken to the internet to express their excitement, hopes and fears for the nation's lunar mission. Joining them are brands who have crafted creatives to mark the historic occasion and capture the emotions of the nation who have their eyes set on the moon. Here is our pick of some of the best Chandrayaan 3-moment marketing posts.
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BCCI rakes in Rs 4670 cr in Women's Premier League team auction: Jay Shah 26 Jan
WPL has broken the inaugural auction record of Men's IPL in 2008, tweeted Shah
As expected, Wednesday turned out to be another historic day in Indian women's cricket with BCCI having a windfall gain of Rs 4,600 crores by auctioning five team franchises for the first season, a higher sum compared to what men’s IPL franchises offered to the cricket body during the launch in 2008.
Adani, IndiaWin Sports, Royal Challengers, GSW- GMR cricket and Capri Global have won the bid, BCCI secretary Jay Shah tweeted.
Shah shared in a series of tweets, “Today is a historic day in cricket as the bidding for teams of inaugural #WPL broke the records of the inaugural Men's IPL in 2008! Congratulations to the winners as we garnered Rs.4669.99 Cr in total bid.”
“This marks the beginning of a revolution in women's cricket and paves the way for a transformative journey ahead not only for our women cricketers but for the entire sports fraternity. The #WPL would bring necessary reforms in women's cricket and would ensure an all-encompassing ecosystem that benefits each and every stakeholder.”
“The @BCCI has named the league - Women's Premier League (WPL). Let the journey begin…”
The country's top corporates had bid aggressively for the league. Over 16 groups including IPL franchise owners, Adani group, Torrent and Haldiram were believed to be in the fray.
Given the popularity of IPL in India, the event is touted to be a big draw for all stakeholders involved.
The BCCI was reportedly expecting ₹4,000 crore gain through team auction.
It’s noteworthy that Viacom18 has won the Women's IPL media rights for Rs 951 crore for the next five years creating euphoria around the league whose first season will be held in March.
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